IDEX 2025: Shifting sands – the Middle East’s defence landscape in flux (video)

The military land sector in the Middle East is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the withdrawal of Western forces, evolving regional power dynamics and the strategic manoeuvres of global defence exporters.

Fifteen years ago, the Middle East was entrenched in conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, heavily influenced by Western military presence. Today, while internal conflicts persist, nations are focusing on self-stabilisation and asserting regional dominance in the absence of significant Western intervention.

Countries like Saudi Arabia are positioning themselves as hegemonic powers, leveraging their religious and geopolitical significance. Meanwhile, Israel, with tacit support from the US, continues to operate with relative autonomy, influencing the balance of power in the region.

Modernisation and militarisation

The land domain has evolved from direct conflict to strategic deterrence. The withdrawal of US and allied forces, coupled with the decline of threats like ISIS, has led to a “soft power battle” where military build-up acts as a deterrent rather than a prelude to war.

“The bigger the army, the less likely you are to have issues with other countries,” explains Sam Hart, Senior Land Analyst at Shephard Group, highlighting how nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing heavily in their land forces.

As Russia’s influence wanes, particularly following its engagement in Ukraine, a significant gap has emerged in the Middle Eastern defence market. Many countries still operate ageing Soviet-era armoured vehicles, but Russia’s capacity to supply new equipment has diminished due to sanctions and resource constraints.

This vacuum presents a golden opportunity for China. At defence events like Saudi Arabia’s WDS and the upcoming IDEX show in Abu Dhabi, Chinese defence manufacturers, notably NORINCO, are expected to showcase modern, cost-effective alternatives to Russian and Western equipment.

“China is offering vehicles at a third of the cost of their Western counterparts, coupled with favourable trade conditions,” Hart points out. These deals, however, often come with strategic strings attached, such as access to military bases, echoing China’s approach in Djibouti.

Turkey, straddling the Middle East and Europe, is also capitalising on this shift. Turkish defence primes like FNSS, Otokar, and BMC are successfully penetrating both European and Middle Eastern markets.

“The fact that Turkey is a Middle Eastern country, at least geographically, means that they have those ties already, and they’re being seen by the Middle Eastern market as a gateway into the European market as well,” says Hart, predicting significant Turkish presence and announcements at IDEX.

IDEX 2025: A barometer for regional ambitions

The International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi serves as a critical platform for observing these shifts. Unlike other global trade shows, IDEX welcomes a diverse array of participants from aligned and non-aligned countries, reflecting the Middle East’s unique geopolitical stance.

“The Middle East is the only region where you’ll see China, Russia, and Western nations all in the same exhibition hall,” Hart remarks.

Key players like the UAE’s EDGE Group, which has rapidly expanded its portfolio through acquisitions such as Estonia’s Milrem Robotics, are expected to make significant announcements. These moves not only bolster EDGE’s capabilities but also facilitate access to markets previously out of reach.

Hart anticipates updates on Turkish programmes, such as the Altay MBT, and increased visibility for Chinese platforms. Additionally, the regional push towards modernisation raises questions about whether countries will prioritise cost-effective solutions from China or invest in higher-end European technologies.

“The Middle East is at a crossroads,” Hart concludes. “With Western powers stepping back, the region is seizing the opportunity to redefine its military and political identity. IDEX will provide a glimpse into how these ambitions are taking shape.”

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