IDEX 2025: Industry poised to profit from Middle East air forces’ modernisation efforts

Within a rapidly growing global defence landscape, countries within the Middle East have seen a noted rise in defence spending over the past year, as efforts continue to modernise their armed forces.

Alone, Saudi Arabia’s defence budget makes up around 3.1% of global defence spending with a reported budget of US$78 billion for 2025. Other Middle Eastern countries, such as Qatar, Iraq and Israel, all increased their defence budgets in 2024.

For Embraer, the Middle East remains a key strategic region. Frederico Lemos, chief commercial officer at Embraer, told Shephard that the Brazilian manufacturer has seen “lots of interest” in its C-390 Millennium, A-29 Super Tucano and special mission platforms from countries in the region.

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Saudi Arabia has long been identified as a core addressable market for the C-390, with the Royal Saudi Air Force looking for a replacement for its ageing C-130H fleet, while the manufacturer has also invested in a UAE sales office based in Dubai, which it established in November 2023. It signed for closer ties with Morocco in October 2024 – part of the wider MENA (Middle East North Africa) region – where it plans to concentrate on its C-390 platform.

Lockheed Martin’s C-130J Hercules also remains a future option for Saudi Arabia to choose as a tanker replacement. The US defence and aerospace company will be celebrating 50 years’ worth of collaboration with the UAE at IDEX this year, and has many Middle Eastern countries as long-standing customers for its F-35 and F-16 aircraft – most notably Israel – and a variety of cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, the Eurofighter consortium – made up of BAE Systems, Airbus and Leonardo – waits on further orders for its Eurofighter Typhoon. It has reported interest from Qatar and Saudi Arabia to procure more of these jets. Both countries were noted as potential exports opportunities by Eurofighter in 2024, with Saudi Arabia ordering a further 54 and Qatar a further 12.

Boeing will focus on the Middle East as a “key opportunity” to engage with the UAE, highlighting five key productions for the region: F-15EX, T-7, CH-47 Chinook, AH-64 Apache and Integrator ER, according to Kuljit Ghata-Aura, president of Boeing Middle East, Turkey, Africa and Central Asia. 

Away from fixed-wing to a focus on uncrewed aerial systems, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) MQ-9B may face a possible acquisition announcement from the UAE.

In 2023, GA-ASI confirmed to Shephard that healthy talks were “ongoing” following the initial freezing of the programme in 2021. If confirmed, the sale – worth an estimated US$2.97 billion – is forecast by Shephard Defence Insight to conduct deliveries between 2026 and 2029.

For electronic warfare capabilities, L3Harris’ work on its ViperShield, the newly tested electronic warfare suite for installation on F-16 Block 70/72 aircraft, continues apace. The company is showcasing the system at IDEX and the suite is being produced for international customers of the F-16 – which could include Bahrain and Turkey – and deliveries are expected to be conducted by late 2025.

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Related Programmes in Defence Insight

C-130 Replacement [Saudi Arabia]

Related Equipment in Defence Insight

KC-390/C-390 Millennium

KC-130J Super Hercules

Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4/4+