Dormant helicopter programmes in Africa and Asia present opportunities

Progress has stalled across multiple helicopter modernisation programmes in African and Asian countries, as traditional supply chains have been disrupted since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Shephard Defence Insight has identified 13 helicopter programmes in Africa and Asia which feature Soviet or Russian helicopters in need of replacement but of which little has been heard for several years.

Following the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russian war, the US passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which has slowed progress for many of these programmes. As a result, Shephard believes that there is a gap in the market for enterprising Western manufacturers to make inroads in previously Russian-dominated markets.

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If these programmes are dormant, this raises the question of whether that is because the aircraft do not need to be replaced, or because funding is not in place. The latter may be the case for some, but many of the nations listed have significant UN deployments which are often financially lucrative with countries contributing troops being paid per-soldier, as well as for “Contingent Owned Equipment” including helicopters. These requirements are in addition to the countries’ own requirements which will also drive replacement demands.

Establishing services and support is key

In Africa, many of the countries with stalled programmes are sub-Saharan, where small orders and low industrial support levels have been the norm. This presents challenges to manufacturers, but also opportunities, according to a Leonardo spokesperson who spoke to Shephard.

“The helicopter market [increasingly] requires strong proximity and localised support capabilities, and Africa makes no exception,” they explained. “In this case there seems to be still a lot to do to make sure an appropriate level of services and know-how is established.”

They added that, in recent years, Leonardo has “solidified its position” in the support and maintenance sector, particularly in South Africa.

In Asia, meanwhile, the helicopter market is growing and support networks are already more established.

“Support and training services are key in Asia,” Leonardo told Shephard. “Many countries have fully understood their importance and Leonardo has established a solid presence. One example is the logistics centre and training centre in Malaysia.”

Another reason some of the above programmes may have been delayed could be down to the level of willingness of Western nations to lend support to upstream conflict prevention following the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. This support includes capable, modern helicopters. As Western nations now focus their militaries on high-intensity conflict closer to home, those helicopter fleets will go with them.

The next question is whether the helicopters need to be replaced with crewed aircraft, or whether uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) could be contenders. However, because rotary UAVs are an immature technology and a long way from being trusted to carry passengers, crewed helicopters are likely to remain needed for some time. 

Shifting demands in Africa and Asia

The Philippine Air Force’s Heavy Lift Helicopter programme offers an example. The country signed a deal in 2021 for 16 Russian-made Mi-17s, but this was cancelled in July 2022 due to concerns over potential sanctions from the US following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country had previously rejected the Boeing CH-47 on cost grounds despite a financial aid package from the US government. 

With ongoing Sino-Philippine tensions and taking account of the country’s littoral geography, the requirement for heavy-lift helicopters remains. It is therefore a realistic possibility that the Philippine government would accept a lower-lift capability for a lower price.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, has Mi-8/17s in service, many of which are of 1970s vintage. The country’s ongoing internal troubles might make foreign sales difficult, but with large deployments to several multi-national organisations in East Africa, the need for vertical lift is evident.

One company which operates widely in Africa is US-based Bell Helicopters which, in 2024, announced plans to expand its operations in the continent. In January 2025 the US State Department authorised the sale of two Bell 412 helicopters to Zambia. What makes this sale stand out is that although Zambia already operates 13 Bell helicopters, it has previously also favoured Chinese aircraft for both its fixed and rotary wing requirements.

An example of a country ordering Western aircraft where previously Russian might have been expected is Thailand which, in September 2025, ordered its 13th and 14^th H225M helicopters from Airbus. Thailand began buying H225Ms before CAATSA took effect which shows that Western aircraft can compete in Asia even without the threat of sanctions.

Related Programmes in Defence Insight

Heavy Lift Helicopter [Philippines]

Bell 412EP [Zambia]

Related Equipment in Defence Insight

H225M