Can Russian industry maintain a viable air force?
Russian losses to Ukrainian air defences of Su-34s that were still flying over home territory have been problematic, and current low production rates seem insufficient to make up the numbers. (Photo: Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation)
While sanctions have not crippled Russia’s military-industrial complex as some predicted, its ability to produce modern combat aircraft at a sustainable rate remains uncertain.
The 29th month of the Russian-initiated war in Ukraine marks a grim milestone. A recurring complaint has been the absence of a Russian economic-military-industrial collapse, a scenario widely forecasted by commentators in 2022.
The assumption was that sanctions on critical exports would cripple Russia's economy and military production. This expected collapse has not, however, occurred.
This analytical error is not new. Many countries can endure short- to medium-term exclusion from traditional markets and trading partners. The early 20th-century belief that prolonged European war was impossible due to economic interdependence proved incorrect. Similarly, Putin’s Russia has defied the anticipated trajectory. Conscripting
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